While Activision killed of its once booming Guitar Hero business last week after milking the franchise dry with multiple releases each year, analysts don't expect Call of Duty to suffer the same fate.
A number of industry watchers have told IndustryGamers that Activision has nothing to "learn" from the fall of Guitar Hero, and that Call of Duty will remain a top selling franchise as long as game quality is maintained.
"I don't think they are comparable at all," said Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter. "GH is a franchise that people buy once, because the peripherals are great. As it saturated the installed base, the only buyers were people who are new console purchasers, and the 'fad' appeared to wear off at the same time.
"CoD, on the other hand, has a vibrant online community that keeps growing. When a new version comes out, the 'network effect' kicks in, and many people buy it because their friends have done so. The risk to the franchise is competition, not people tiring of the gameplay... CoD won't fade unless Activision opens the door to competition by making a bad game."
David Cole of DFC Intelligence said: "With GH it seemed that it was very likely to be a fad that would be milked until it dried out. It was somewhat the same issue as extreme sports and hunting games. FPS games are a long proven genre and thus don't seem to have fallen into that fad issue.
"However, there is a very real danger of milking a franchise and causing quality to decline, which can result in turning consumers off. With COD I think the danger is trying to maintain the quality of the franchise and making sure they don't release product just to release product."
Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian offered: "I think music games were a fad - just like fitness games were at one point, and maybe dance games are today. But after years of franchise growth, I wouldn't put Call of Duty in the same category.
"Could Activision mess it up? Sure, but if they focus on maintaining high game quality, fresh story-lines, and online multiplayer, then I don't see an obvious reason for the franchise to decline."
EEDAR's Jesse Divnich added: "I don't believe any lessons learned from the music category applies to the Call of Duty franchise. I trust that Activision knows what they are doing with Call of Duty and I remain unconcerned about the franchise's future."
Last week, Activision announced the formation of a new digital-focused Call of Duty development studio named Beachhead.
source: CVG
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"I don't think they are comparable at all," said Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter. "GH is a franchise that people buy once, because the peripherals are great. As it saturated the installed base, the only buyers were people who are new console purchasers, and the 'fad' appeared to wear off at the same time.
"CoD, on the other hand, has a vibrant online community that keeps growing. When a new version comes out, the 'network effect' kicks in, and many people buy it because their friends have done so. The risk to the franchise is competition, not people tiring of the gameplay... CoD won't fade unless Activision opens the door to competition by making a bad game."
David Cole of DFC Intelligence said: "With GH it seemed that it was very likely to be a fad that would be milked until it dried out. It was somewhat the same issue as extreme sports and hunting games. FPS games are a long proven genre and thus don't seem to have fallen into that fad issue.
"However, there is a very real danger of milking a franchise and causing quality to decline, which can result in turning consumers off. With COD I think the danger is trying to maintain the quality of the franchise and making sure they don't release product just to release product."
Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian offered: "I think music games were a fad - just like fitness games were at one point, and maybe dance games are today. But after years of franchise growth, I wouldn't put Call of Duty in the same category.
"Could Activision mess it up? Sure, but if they focus on maintaining high game quality, fresh story-lines, and online multiplayer, then I don't see an obvious reason for the franchise to decline."
EEDAR's Jesse Divnich added: "I don't believe any lessons learned from the music category applies to the Call of Duty franchise. I trust that Activision knows what they are doing with Call of Duty and I remain unconcerned about the franchise's future."
Last week, Activision announced the formation of a new digital-focused Call of Duty development studio named Beachhead.
source: CVG
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